Uncertainty and Anxiety

Uncertainty and Anxiety

Monday 30 Oct 2023

It’s only two days until Dave, Pete and Simon arrive and I am ready to move on. I am actively trying to absorb weather forecasts and figure out if and when we might be able to set out for our passage to the USVI. We have reached the point in the project where I am almost overwhelmed with uncertainties about the weather and if it will even be possible to complete this voyage as planned. As I think about the situation, there are two main obstacles that we need to overcome: firstly, having conditions that will allow us to cross the Gulf Stream safely and without being too uncomfortable, and secondly, avoiding any tropical storms / hurricanes that may still be brewing. Yesterday I was quite disheartened by the forecast, so I spent some time considering various alternatives in case we can’t get across the Gulf Stream or the threat of tropical weather is too severe. I found going through that process to be helpful and somewhat comforting. Today the forecasts seem a little more promising. The threat of tropical storms has diminished and there may be a weather window opening up that will allow us to get out across the Gulf Stream at the weekend. Specifically, we are looking to avoid winds of >10 knots with a northerly component as this would likely create large and steep waves due to wind against current effects in the Gulf Stream. The truth is that weather forecasts a week in advance are not very reliable and should be taken with a pinch of salt. The reality is that I can’t seem to avoid the rollercoaster of emotions that come with a good or bad forecast, when both should probably be ignored at this point. For example, yesterday morning I saw a forecast for hurricane conditions with 75 knot winds off North Carolina later next week; today that prediction has completely vanished! I have numerous sources of weather information and when their predictions start to coalesce, that’s when I think you can have a little more faith in them. That tends to happen as they get closer in time, and that is why Morehead City is viewed as a good departure point, because we can be in the Gulf Stream in ~ 8 hours and across it in another ~ 8 hours, all within a timeframe that we should have confidence in the forecasts.

The boat jobs are all but complete; we just need to do final provisioning, top up the water and diesel, stow the dinghy on the foredeck and set up the wind-pilot steering. Tim and Deb, the friends that I met last week, came round for dinner this evening and it was great to spend some time with them.

I hope to post one final blog from Morehead City before heading out.

Mike

Looking out across the Intra Coastal Waterway from Morehead City

This charter fishing vessel focuses more on ground fishing, rather than game fishing

One of the many charter fishing vessels available

From the Sublime to the Disgusting

From the Sublime to the Disgusting

Wed 25 - Thur 26 October 2023

Whilst sitting at a bar on Sunday, watching the Patriots game, I met a lovely local couple called Tim and Deb. We exchanged phone numbers and they very kindly invited me round for dinner last night. I had the greatest time! After picking me up at the marina, we first went to “The Club at the Webb” for a couple of drinks. This bar, or “speakeasy” as Deb described it, has only been open for three days, but it was charming. It is located in a former children’s library and has several rooms with wood paneling, armchairs, sofas and artwork on the walls. It appears to be attracting quite a few customers, and mostly they seemed to know each other already. Everyone was extremely friendly and it was a great atmosphere. We then headed round to Deb and Tim’s house, located about 3 miles southwest of the marina, situated on the banks of a small creek. I got to chat with their friends and neighbors, who had also been invited round, and ate a wonderful Eastern Carolina barbecue, with pork butt, potato salad, coleslaw and the best baked beans I’ve ever eaten! The whole crowd were so welcoming and it was a fabulous evening.

So that was the “sublime” … now onto the “disgusting”. This morning I set to replacing the main sanitary hose from the aft head (toilet). Frankly, the locker through which it runs was smelling pretty grim and I realized that the hose itself was stinking. It was good quality, but probably ten years old, and they don’t stay impervious to odor for ever. It wasn’t a pleasant job, but by flushing plenty of fresh water through at the outset, I was able to minimize the mess. Getting the old hose off the back of the toilet was the hardest part and the rest of the refit went fine. I have one more hose that I want to replace in the lazarette (where the septic tank is mounted), but I have to wait for the new one to come in from Defender. (Note. Defender charges $11 / foot for this particular hose, with free shipping for orders over $100, whereas WestMarine charge $21 / foot for the same item. Now that’s what I call disgusting. I hate WestMarine !).

That’s it for now

Mike

Overlooking the creek from Deb and Tim's back yard (iPhone photo)

The crowd gathered in Deb and Tim's kitchen - wonderful people, great food! (Deb and Tim on far right with Archie the dog)

Three big outboards and underwater lighting

The same motors from across the marina - photo cropped and vignetted

A long row of $2m + powerboats

Checking out the Nail Salon

Checking out the Nail Salon

Mon-Tues 23-4 Oct 2023

Yesterday I became the first member of our family to set foot inside a nail salon. Well, they say life is about exploring new opportunities and pushing boundaries. To be honest, this wasn’t a premeditated visit … it just sort of happened … as it does, when you are trying to get a propane tank refilled. I hired the marina courtesy car for 2 hours (a good deal for $20 including gas) and set out to do a number of jobs. First stop was the Hicks Propane Bottle filling Station, where a sign out back, by the large propane tank, said use the side door. When I entered, as instructed, I found myself in a nail salon. “I must be in the wrong place” I said, “Oh no sir, this is correct” said an oriental gentleman, working on a customers fine set of nails, “but we are very busy at the minute, so please leave the tank and come back in a hour”. If I gave you a hundred choices of complementary businesses to run in conjunction with a propane filling station, I don’t think anyone would come up with nail salon.

I also got my latest Covid booster … yes that would be the vaccine that has conservatively saved a million lives in the USA alone … for any anti-vaxxers out there! I didn’t feel brilliant last night and it wasn’t until the early hours that I figured it was probably the response to the vaccine. I took a couple of ibuprofen and that helped.

I continue to make progress on my boat job list and was very excited to complete some work on our engine control panel. A couple of the panel lights have been blown out for several years, and the engine-stop button has lost it’s rubber waterproof coating. However, I could never figure out how to get access to the panel and feared it would involve removing the autopilot and approaching from the backside, leading to extreme bodily contortions and much bad language. After several years of procrastination, I found that individual sections of the panel are easily unscrewed from the front, and replacing the broken bulbs and engine-stop switch turned out to be trivial.

This evening a fellow sailor dropped by for a drink and then we grabbed dinner at “Floyds”, a local restaurant nearby. Ben is 74 years old and solo sailing his 37 ft Pacific Seacraft “Loon”. Tomorrow morning he is heading south off the coast to Charleston, SC, which is probably a ~30 hour passage. He will then wait for a good weather window and sail across the Gulf Stream directly to the Abacos region of the Bahamas. He has done this a number of times before and estimates it will take about 72 hours. He cat-naps 20 minutes at a time during the day, then stays awake all night. I know I couldn’t function with that little sleep.

Mike

... still at Morehead City Yacht Basin

C-Dock, Morehead City Yacht Basin. Even in dead calm conditions there is still some motion on the water, which is picked up in these 1 minute exposures

Both panoramas are stitched together from a sequence of individual shots, taken with a 70 mm lens. another evening I'll try and get out with a wider angle lens as well

Weather watching

Weather watching

Friday - Saturday 20-21 October 2023

I continue to make slow and steady progress on the boat jobs. I decided the varnishing is complete with 3 coats and took off the masking tape this morning. I’ve made some progress on polishing the stainless steel and cleaning windows. I’m also trying to get more proficient in using the Predict Wind weather routing tools and so I watched a couple of videos that they provided, specifically aimed at managing weather information and routing on long passages. They recommend spending as much time as possible trying to get a handle on the weather patterns before making a big passage, so I’ve started running models on a daily basis. It’s been good practice, but it’s also a little off-putting as the weather in the Caribbean, Bahamas and east coast USA has been so poor and continues to look awful as far out as early November. We would be okay leaving this morning, as long as you don’t mind 12 foot seas resulting from hurricane Tammy, as she makes her way north next week. I need to remind myself that long range forecasts, good or bad, should be taken with a pinch of salt. 

Yesterday evening we had a strong front come through that brought scattered thunderstorms and winds gusting to 30 knots. In fact there was a local warning for storms off the coast generating 55 knot winds and waterspouts. Anyway the passing clouds created a spectacular sunset over the marina last night. Earlier in the afternoon I did launch the dinghy and went for a ride, but chickened out of crossing the open water of the estuary, to Beaufort. It probably would have been fine getting there, but directly into the building wind and chop on the way back.

The highlight today was watching the England - South African rugby World Cup semifinal over on the sailing vessel Pyxus. I met Jen and Barry when they first arrived yesterday and they said they planned to watch the game on the TV in the club house and I should join them. As it transpired, the game wasn’t available on that TV, so we went and watched on their boat, joined by their friends Sharlene and Gill from sailing vessel First Love. They all seem like lovely people and it was great fun. They all have strong connections to South Africa, and although England dominated for most of the game, South Africa won in the end. They certainly seemed more vested in the outcome than I was.

Mike

The newly varnished teak cap rail after the rain

Two powerboats in adjacent slips - shot from the dinghy

Sunset reflected in the windows of a powerboat 

Panorama of the sunset at MCYB

Ditto using a wide angle lens

Ticking off the boat jobs

Ticking off the boat jobs

Thursday 19th October 2023

I had hoped to do more varnishing today but the weather forecast showed a high probability of rain, so I gave up on that plan. I did manage to switch out the davit lines and this has made a huge difference. The original lines that came with the davits seemed oversized and very stiff, making it difficult to lower the dinghy. The new lines (5/16” compared to 7/16”) seem to work much better. I also did some stainless steel polishing and cleaned the windows, a pointless job as they just get salted up again as soon as we go sailing, but for now they look much better!

There is a “King Mackerel” tournament taking place today and tomorrow, with much activity in the marina. I asked one fisherman if the King Mackerel tasted good … “not really” was his reply … so why not fish for something that tastes better?

On the cooking front I have had some success and some failure. Yesterday I cooked some Carne Asada (courtesy of Trader Joe) and ate this with salad, which turned out to be awesome. I also made bread and butter pudding, one of my favorites. Unfortunately, I put the pan on the lower shelf of the oven, right above the burner, and whilst the pudding was fine, the bottom of the pan got so burnt that I had to throw it away. I won't make that mistake again. This evening I made chicken piccata, which was excellent, if I say so myself.

Not much else to report. Overall it’s pretty quiet. I did meet an English guy outside the showers yesterday. He had come into the marina the night before and was just off for a quick shower before heading out again. He was single handed on a sailboat, an impressive feat in itself; the fact that he does this having apparently lost both legs seems amazing. How did he lose his legs and how did he manage? I would loved to have talked to him some more, but sadly never got the chance.

Mike

Fisherman with King Mackerel

My version of chicken picatta ... with chicken, asparagus, garlic, capers and lemon juice ... it was yummy!

A damp day in Morhead city yacht Basin ... you can see the masking tape below the rail, and also above and below the teak pin-strip on the side of the cabin. The dinghy now hangs from those fabulous new davit lines!

Two feet from the dock … and stuck on the boat

 Two feet from the dock … and stuck on the boat

Tuesday 17th October 2023

The title describes my current situation. It’s 6.15 pm and I couldn’t get off the boat if I wanted to. If I had half a brain I’d blame this on government overreach, but thankfully I have a full brain and realize that this is my own fault. I just finished putting a coat of varnish on the cap-rail, which I must say is looking really good, but this means I can’t stand on the rail to step onto the dock, and I can’t reach the dock without stepping on the rail … so I’m stuck! 

It’ been a busy day, mostly spent sanding the aforementioned teak cap rail and the pencil rails on the side of the cabin top, then taping around them, and finally applying a coat of varnish. I can’t say I did a brilliant job with the preparation, I just lack the patience for these attention-to-detail jobs, but I figure they must have been really bad to look so much better after one coat! My goal, over the next few days, is to get three or four coats applied.

Yesterday, I was chatting to a couple of young guys from a marine electronics company who were replacing a radar unit on a power boat along the dock. Apparently it got hit by lightening, which destroyed not only the navigational electronics, but the air conditioner units and engine control board as well. Lightening is one of those things that worries us a lot, but there is very little you can really do to eliminate the risk. Our boat is well grounded, so that should help, but if we were hit we would expect to lose all our navigational electronics, radar and Iridium Go! satellite system. Consequently, my first job this morning was to order a 100-minute pre-paid sim card for our old satellite phone. If we lose our Iridium Go! satellite system, our fall back plan will be to call Gloria and get verbal updates on weather. We also have paper charts, electronic charts on an iPad, and independent GPS units to fall back on.

Whilst drinking my morning coffee I was working with the PredictWind weather forecasting and routing tools. I learned that I could create a “boundary” defined by coordinates that are 250 nm from shore, that limits the proposed routes to meet our insurance restrictions. You can see the boundary area on screenshot shown below. This particular visualization is showing ocean currents, including the gulf Stream, which I think is really cool. Whilst we are too far away from our proposed departure time, it is fun too play around and learn how best too use the tools. 

Mike

A screen shot of a Predict Wind routing model, with the exclusion boundary that limits the proposed routes to <250 nm offshore. In this depiction you are seeing predictions of the ocean currents as well as some a warning for vertical acceleration (i.e. very bumpy!)

The view towards the front of the boat in Morehead City Yacht Basin

The view towards the stern

The end of Stage 1

The end of Stage 1

Today we rented a car and I drove Gloria and Rod to the Albert J Ellis airport about 60 miles south west of Morehead City so that they can fly home. If all goes to plan, Gloria will fly down to St Thomas in about a month’s time to rejoin the boat. It’s going to be a strange couple of weeks for me hanging out in Morehead City … but one day at a time.  

Mike

As many of you know, it’s our tradition to have all visiting friends and family write at least one blog before they depart. So this entry, written yesterday, comes from Rod

As you will know from reading this blog, I have been aboard Cotinga as crew since she left East Greenwich. This is my first, and last, for now, blog entry. 

As the old saying goes, all good things must end & my time aboard Cotinga finishes tomorrow when Gloria & I leave Captain Mike here in Morehead City.  He'll await the next crew members and continue preparing the boat for the offshore passage.

As mentioned in yesterday's blog post, it rained yesterday afternoon.  Mike and I had just finished scrubbing Cotinga's decks (who says life aboard isn't glamorous?) while Gloria washed the cabin sole (that's the floor for you land lubbers) when the rain began.

The rain subsided in the late afternoon, too late for cocktails in the cockpit and a brisk northwest wind set up that continued all night long.

We awoke in the morning to chilly temps & the same northwest wind.   Having the day mostly free we decided to tour the Fort Macon State Park.  That park contains a Civil War Era brick fort located on a barrier island just about 2 miles due South of the marina.  Being unable to walk on water, we were forced to find an Uber to take us the 10 miles or so to the park.  

It turned out to be a lovely spot to visit with expansive water views and sandy beaches.  The fort was attacked and taken by Union forces commanded by General Ambrose Burnside who later served as governor of Rhode Island (my home state) for three terms.  Among his forces were two regiments of  Rhode Island infantry.  General Burnside sported generous side whiskers a style that later became known as "sideburns"

The park has many well tended trails among the dunes that covers several miles.  We walked a fair bit of them, then, on the hunt for lunch, we walked several miles to a waterside restaurant called Oceanana, pronunciation unclear.  A late and quite filling lunch led us to call another Uber to take us back to Cotinga and a much needed rest!

It has been a great journey with good times, great weather (save one day), great food and great company.  I want to thank Mike & Gloria for having me aboard. 

May Cotinga and her crew always have fair winds and happy times.

Rod

Fort Macon

Part of the door to the inner fort

Ruddy Turnstone

The Atlantic Ocean from the Fort Macon State Park. This section of coast was sheltered from the northerly winds, but it still looked quite rough offshore

Dramatic light off Atlantic Beach

On the Dock in Morehead City

On the Dock in Morehead City

Saturday 14th October 2023

After raining all day on Thursday it was a shock to wake up to clear skies and sunshine on Friday morning. What a beautiful day! We had a somewhat lazy start because we wanted to arrive in Morehead city at slack tide. Currents can run strongly in that area and docking Cotinga can be a challenge at the best of times. In fact, pre-docking anxiety occupied my mind for much of Thursday evening and the following day. It was a lovely warm motor down Adams Creek, with only a couple of large barges to navigate around! We arrived at the Morehead City Yacht Basin and got instructions of where to go. We prepared to back into the slip, but when I saw the situation I chickened out and decided a bow-in approach might be safer. It’s one of those slips where you have to attach a rope to a pair of pilings (one port and one starboard) as you enter, which we were prepared for. In fact there were already lines on the pilings and all we had to do was lift them off their hangers with a boat hook, and voila … home and dry. Of course it didn’t go down quite like that! I managed to back the boat down the fairway and then drive forward to the slip. Rod did a stellar job reaching for the line on upwind piling, but unfortunately it had become knotted around the hanger. After some tense moments we did get Cotinga secured and we all took a deep breath! We ate Butter chicken for dinner … delicious … and drank a couple of Dark and Stormy’s to celebrate our arrival. None of us had the energy or motivation to write a blog!

We chose to come into Morehead City Yacht Basin a day ahead of schedule because the forecast for Saturday was high winds and squalls. As I write this blog it is pouring rain and blowing up to 25 knots. Our planning was good!

So why are we here and why now? Beaufort inlet is about 2 miles from here and is an “ideal” departure point for the Caribbean. The Gulf Stream lies relatively close to the coast and so you can reach it and cross it in a time period that you have confidence in the weather forecast. Specifically, you don’t want to cross the Gulf Stream when the winds have a northerly component as this creates really nasty conditions. Once across the Gulf Stream you want to head south east “until the butter melts” and then turn south in the trade winds as you close in on the islands of the eastern Caribbean. Unfortunately for us, a "250 miles from land" limitation on our insurance coverage will force us to take a more direct route, for better or worse. Timing your passage to the Caribbean is a balance between leaving late enough to avoid tropical storms, but not so late that you start encountering North Atlantic winter storms. Early November is viewed as the best compromise. In 2017 we sailed Cotinga down to Portsmouth, VA in early October and left her on the dock until the start of the Caribbean 1500 rally in early November. Leaving Narragansett Bay in early October gives you a better chance of decent weather for the passage to Portsmouth and also means that you aren’t up against a deadline for the subsequent passage. This year we chose to go a little further south to Morehead City in the hope of getting warmer weather sooner. My friends Dave Anderson (who joined us  on the passage in 2017), Pete Leeming and Simon Wilsher (both from the UK) are all scheduled to fly in on November 1st. We will get settled in and then look for the first opportunity from a weather perspective to start our offshore passage. In the mean time, Gloria and Rod will fly back to New England on Monday and I will stay with Cotinga to prepare for the ongoing journey.

Mike

N34 43.316 W76 42.198

Lunch out on Saturday at the "Sanitary Seafood Market and Restaurant" ... one of Morehead City's oldest restaurants

A highlight from our morning walk was seeing this Clapper Rail down by the water ... this is the first time we have seen (rather than heard) this bird in the USA

The same Clapper Rail crossing a board walk

Structural braces at a construction site near the water's edge

Who said cruising was glamorous?

 Who said cruising was glamorous?

Thursday 12 Oct 2023

We awoke to grey skies and drizzle. There was no wind and so, after we hauled up the anchor, we set out to motor our way down to the Neuse River. At the outset it didn’t feel too cold, but as the morning went on and the rain and wind picked up, we all started to get quite chilled. We took turns at the helm, where the Bimini kept off some of the rain, and then sheltered behind the dodger when we weren’t on watch. It took us about six hours to reach our destination, and in the last couple of hours we were able to deploy the Genoa and gain some speed motor-sailing. It was certainly atmospheric traveling under these conditions. The highlight of the trip was the tomato soup we had for lunch, canned from our own tomatoes last summer. We also saw a couple of dolphin which was cool.

Once anchored in the beautiful South River, we went below and relaxed for a couple of hours reading our books. We ate well at dinner, with Cajun chicken pasta followed by baked apples, and by the time we finished eating the rain had stopped and the skies were clearing. 

We made good progress, and if all goes well, we should be on the dock in Morehead city by tomorrow evening.

Mike

N 34 57.941, W 76 34.688

Hauling up the anchor in Belhaven

Gloria in her foul weather gear

Motoring down the Pungo River in the rain

ICW channel markers entering Goose Creek