Uncertainty and Anxiety
Monday 30 Oct 2023
It’s only two days until Dave, Pete and Simon arrive and I am ready to move on. I am actively trying to absorb weather forecasts and figure out if and when we might be able to set out for our passage to the USVI. We have reached the point in the project where I am almost overwhelmed with uncertainties about the weather and if it will even be possible to complete this voyage as planned. As I think about the situation, there are two main obstacles that we need to overcome: firstly, having conditions that will allow us to cross the Gulf Stream safely and without being too uncomfortable, and secondly, avoiding any tropical storms / hurricanes that may still be brewing. Yesterday I was quite disheartened by the forecast, so I spent some time considering various alternatives in case we can’t get across the Gulf Stream or the threat of tropical weather is too severe. I found going through that process to be helpful and somewhat comforting. Today the forecasts seem a little more promising. The threat of tropical storms has diminished and there may be a weather window opening up that will allow us to get out across the Gulf Stream at the weekend. Specifically, we are looking to avoid winds of >10 knots with a northerly component as this would likely create large and steep waves due to wind against current effects in the Gulf Stream. The truth is that weather forecasts a week in advance are not very reliable and should be taken with a pinch of salt. The reality is that I can’t seem to avoid the rollercoaster of emotions that come with a good or bad forecast, when both should probably be ignored at this point. For example, yesterday morning I saw a forecast for hurricane conditions with 75 knot winds off North Carolina later next week; today that prediction has completely vanished! I have numerous sources of weather information and when their predictions start to coalesce, that’s when I think you can have a little more faith in them. That tends to happen as they get closer in time, and that is why Morehead City is viewed as a good departure point, because we can be in the Gulf Stream in ~ 8 hours and across it in another ~ 8 hours, all within a timeframe that we should have confidence in the forecasts.
The boat jobs are all but complete; we just need to do final provisioning, top up the water and diesel, stow the dinghy on the foredeck and set up the wind-pilot steering. Tim and Deb, the friends that I met last week, came round for dinner this evening and it was great to spend some time with them.
I hope to post one final blog from Morehead City before heading out.
Mike
Safe crossing!
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